The Use of Fuzzy Logic Model to Investigate the Effect of Weather Parameter Impact on Electrical Load Based on Short Term Forecasting: Further Study
Danladi Ali *
Department of Pure and Applied Physics, Adamawa State University, Mubi, Nigeria.
G. P. Vasira
Department of Pure and Applied Physics, Adamawa State University, Mubi, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Electrical load forecasting is very important for effective planning and management of power system. Accurate load forecasting helps the electrical power company to make some decisions on how to meet up with their consumers’ demand. This paper presents a solution methodology using fuzzy logic approach for short term load forecasting (SLTF) for Adamawa State University. The proposed method used fuzzy reasoning decision rules that utilized the nonlinear relationship between inputs and output. The model developed was able to forecast the future load with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.36% and forecasting without previous load at the input of the fuzzy logic model yields better prediction error. However, from the result obtained, it shows temperature has a significant impact on electrical load than the relative humidity. Also, electrical load shall increase by 1.84 kW on the 25th September, 2018 due to increase in temperature.
Keywords: Load, forecasting, short-term, fuzzy logic, weather, electrical load and fuzzy rules.