Forecasting Solar PV Demand Split and Fuel Wood Usage Reduction in Eriti and Oke-Agunla Villages in Nigeria

Main Article Content

Olalekan Aquila Jesuleye


The study examined solar photovoltaic demand split and fuel wood usage reduction in Eriti and Oke-Agunla villages, that were among the pilot sites for solar electrification programs in the western ecological region of Nigeria. It used questionnaire techniques to elicit information in the local dialect of the respondents, on alternative energy sources for provision of energy services from each of the household's heads, representing solar PV users, in all the 371 households that constitute about 13.4 percent of the 2,778 dwellers in the two villages, for the base year 2020. Specifically, at the rate of the observed 8 dwellers per household, data were obtained from 179 respondents, out of a total of 1,434 dwellers in Eriti village. Likewise, at the rate of the observed 7 dwellers per household, data were also obtained from 192 respondents, out of a total of 1,344 dwellers in Oke-Agunla village. Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MADE-II) was used for the study. The study showed that the total lighting demand share for solar PV in each of the villages’ total energy demand mix in 2020 was insignificantly low at 5.1 percent share in Eriti village and 6.1 percent share in Oke-Agunla village. Contrariwise, firewood demand maintained as high as 94 and 92 percent share for Eriti and Oke-Agunla villages respectively in the total energy demand mix and by 2030, in Oke-Agunla village, 3-stones-firewood stoves demand for cooking fell drastically from 77% to 30% share, whereas improved firewood stoves demand for cooking rose astronomically from 11% share in 2020 to 45% share by 2030. Nigerian government should adopt such best policy intervention scenario for all the rural areas in the country.

Solar PV demand split, fuelwood usage, cooking, lighting, Eriti village, Oke-Agunla village

Article Details

How to Cite
Jesuleye, O. A. (2020). Forecasting Solar PV Demand Split and Fuel Wood Usage Reduction in Eriti and Oke-Agunla Villages in Nigeria. Journal of Energy Research and Reviews, 5(1), 45-60.
Data Article


Jesuleye OA, Siyanbola WO, Ilori MO, Akinbami JFK, Ogundari IO. Solar photovoltaics contribution to energy services in selected remote villages in Nigeria. Nigeria Journal of Solar Energy, Published by Solar Energy Society of Nigeria. 2012;23:304-341.

IER/CERD/5 EEC Project No: 6100.52.41.027. Energy Masterplan for Rural Development in Nigeria – Project Report Vol. II: Energy Demand Analysis, Published, 1992 by Institute for Energy Economics and Rational Use of Energy (IER), University of Stuttgart, Germany and Centre for Energy Research and Development, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.

Jesuleye OA, Siyanbola WO, Ilori MO, Sanni SA. Energy demand analysis of Port-Harcourt Refinery, Nigeria and its policy implications. Energy Policy Journal. 2007;35:1338-1345.

Centre for Energy Economics. Gas Monetization in Nigeria, Case study from New Era, in Oil, Gas and Power Value Creation, published by Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, the University of Texas at Austin, USA; 2003.

Sambo AS. Renewable energy for rural development: The Nigerian perspective. Journal of Science and Technology Vision (ISESCO). 2005;1:12–22.

Solar Cooking Archive. Fuelwood as percentage of energy consumption in developing countries; 2011.
(Retrieved on 23rd August, 2012)

Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Global Forest Resources Assessment. FAO Forestry Paper 147: Progress towards Sustainable Forest Management; 2005.

Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). The role of wood energy in Africa. Definitions, conventions and conversion factors by Forestry Department of FAO; 2016.

Schlag N, Zuzarte F. Market barriers to clean cooking fuels in Sub-Saharan Africa: A review of literature. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm; 2008.

Puzzolo E, Stanistreet D, Pope D, Bruce N, Rehfuess E. Factors influencing the large-scale uptake by households of cleaner and more efficient household energy technologies. A systematic review. London: EPPI-Centre, Social Science Research Unit, Institute of Education, University of London; 2013.

Yassin I. Potentials of energy efficiency in North African Countries and GEF Financed Project in Egypt, a Paper Presented at the ADEME- World Energy Council (WEC) Workshop on Energy Efficiency Policies Abuja, January 8-9; 2007.

Akinbami JFK. An analysis of the demand and supply of electricity and green-house-gases emissions of the Nigerian Electrical Power Industry. Ph. D. Dissertation, at Technology, Planning and Development Unit, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria; 2003.

Obio IB, Lim S. CDM and investment opportunity in Nigeria: Scheme for project design and implementation to attain sustainable development benefits. A Technical Report of the National Stakeholders Workshop on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Jointly Sponsored by Canada-Nigeria Climate Capacity Development Project, Canadian International Development Agency and Federal Ministry of Environment, Abuja, Nigeria; 2004.

Howells MI, Alfstada T, Victor DG, Goldsteinc G, Remmed U. A model of household energy services in a low-income Rural African village. Energy Policy Journal. 2005;33:1833–1851.

Energy Commission of Nigeria. Nigeria Energy Demand and Power Planning Study for the period 2000-2030. Part 1: Energy Demand Projections. Technical Report No ECN/EPA/04/01, Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN), Abuja; 2004.

François M. Energy efficiency: A worldwide review indicators, policies and evaluation. A Paper Presented at the ADEME- World Energy Council (WEC) Workshop on Energy Efficiency Policies Abuja, January 8-9; 2007.

Kowsari R. Twisted energy ladder: Complexities and unintended consequences in the transition to modern energy services. Unpublished PhD Dissertation, at University of British Columbia; 2013.

Zuru AA. Sustainable rural solar energy projects in Nigeria: A case study of some pilot projects. A Paper Presented at the National Solar Energy Forum (NASEF) and Awareness Program on Solar Energy held at Rockview Hotel, Abuja, on November 28-29; 2007.

Jesuleye OA, Siyanbola WO, Ilori MO. Emerging technology penetration: The case of solar electricity in Nigeria. Chapter Contribution in a Book Titled Nanotechnology and Microelectronics: Global Diffusion, Economics and Policy (Hardcover) edited by Ndubuisi Ekekwe and being Published in 2010, by IGI Global Disseminator of Knowledge, Hershey PA 17033-1240, US.

Sambo AS. A keynote address titled “Solar Energy Utilization in the National Energy Emergency Plan” Presented at the National Solar Energy Forum (NASEF) and Awareness Program on Solar Energy held at Rockview Hotel, Abuja, on November 28-29; 2007.

Iloeje OC, Olayande SO, Yusuf AO. Report on an indicative survey of sectoral energy consumption in Nigeria. Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN), Abuja; 2004.

Federal Government of Nigeria. Nigeria’s Electricity Sector, Executive Report, by the Sub-Committee of the Presidential Advisory Committee on 25 Years Electric Power Development Plan; 2006.

Rural Electrification Agency. Electric Power Sector Reform Act, of the Rural Electrification Agency (REA), Wuse Zone 4 Abuja, Nigeria; 2005.

Energy Commission of Nigeria. National Energy Policy; Draft Revised Edition (NEP) (2013) by Energy Commission of Nigeria, Abuja: Federal Republic of Nigeria; 2015.

Ministry of Power. National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEEP), approved by the Federal Executive Council, Federal Republic of Nigeria for the Nigerian Electricity Sector; 2015.

Akinwale Y, Adepoju A. Factors influencing willingness to adopt renewable energy technologies among micro and small enterprises in Lagos State Nigeria. International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management. 2019;19:69-82.

Awosope CA. Nigeria electricity industry: Issues, challenges and solutions. 38th Public Lecture, Covenant University, Public Lecture Series. ISSN 2006-0327, Published by Covenant University Press, Km. 10 Idiroko Road, Canaan Land, P.M.B 1023, Ota, Ogun State, Nigeria. 2014;3(2).

Ismail OS, Ajide OO, Akingbesote F. Performance assessment of installed solar PV system: A case study of Oke-Agunla in Nigeria. Engineering. 2012;4(08):453.

Akinboro F, Adejumobi LA, Makinde V. Solar energy installation in Nigeria: Observations, prospect, problems and solution. Transnational Journal of Science and Technology. 2012;2(4):73-84.

Akinwale Y, Ogundari I, Ilevbare O, Adepoju A. A descriptive analysis of public understanding and attitudes of renewable energy resources towards energy access and development in Nigeria. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. 2014;4(4):636-646.

International Energy Agency. IEA’s Market Report Series: Renewables 2019 Analysis and Forecasts to 2024, Press Release on 21 October 2019 by IEA Paris, France.

Jesuleye OA. Solar PV demand for lighting in Nigerian remote villages. International Journal of Management and Applied Science. 2017;3(10). ISSN: 2394-7926.

Adegbulugbe OA, Akinbami JFK. Urban households energy use pattern in Nigeria. Natural Resource Forum. 1995;19(2):125-133.

Jesuleye OA, Siyanbola WO, Ilori MO. Policy influence of solar PV diffusion into the Nigerian rural energy mix. A Chapter Contribution in a Book Titled, Disruptive Technologies, Innovation and Global Redesign: Emerging Implications, Edited by Ndubuisi Ekekwe and Nazrul Islam, Published by IGI Global Disseminator of Knowledge, Hershey PA 7033-1240, USA, ISBN 978-1-4666-0134-5 (Hardbook); 2012.

World Bank/PHCN/ECN. FADAMA II Project under the World Bank Assisted project in conjunction with the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN) and the Ogun State Government; 2007.

Energy Commission of Nigeria. National Energy Databank: Compendium of Renewable Energy Systems Developed in Nigeria, Edited by B.A. Azare and B. Ayuba, published by Energy Commission of Nigeria, Federal Republic of Nigeria, Abuja; 2007.

Energy Commission of Nigeria. Renewable Energy Master Plan Final Draft Report, by Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN), Federal Republic of Nigeria, Abuja; 2005.

Federal Republic of Nigeria. Report of the Inter-ministerial Committee on the Available Energy Resources and Estimated Quantity of Electricity Derivable from these Resources, Federal Republic of Nigeria (FGN), Abuja.

Energy Commission of Nigeria. Master Plan Study for d Bank/Utilization of Solar Energy being jointly Coordinated by, Energy Commission of Nigeria, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and Ondo State Government, Akure, Nigeria.

Power Holding Company of Nigeria. Meeting the Challenges of Power Sector Development: Generation, Transmission and Distribution Expansion. Paper 1 in Presidential Retreat on Power Generation and Supply, held on 2nd December, 2005 at Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN), Abuja.

World Bank. Nigeria public and private electricity provision as barrier to manufacturing competitiveness on February 10, 2007)