Correlation Analysis of Wind Speed and Grid Interruption-induced Outages and Energy Losses in North Central States, Nigeria
Samson Dauda Yusuf
*
Department of Physics, Faculty of Natural and Applied Sciences, Nasarawa State University, Keffi, PMB 1022, Nigeria.
Daniel Ime Akpan
Transmission Company of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria.
Ibrahim Umar
Department of Physics, Faculty of Natural and Applied Sciences, Nasarawa State University, Keffi, PMB 1022, Nigeria.
*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
Despite the widespread use of power in Nigeria, the electricity supply suffer power deficit, poor quality and sporadic supply especially in the North Central States. Most overhead transmission lines are exposed to natural phenomena especially strong wind which can cause vibration in the conductors and cause the conductors to become closer to or separate away from the body of the tower leading to power outage. This study examined the effect of wind speed on grid interruption and outages in North Central States of Nigeria using correlation analysis of three years NASA wind speed data obtained from NASA/POWER CERES/MERRA2 (2020-2022) and utility outage records. Result shows that, wind speed is observed to be stronger in January, February, August and December throughout the three years period especially January and December. For wind speed at 10m, the total load losses were 121.15MW, 789.5MW and 58.5MW which amounted to energy losses 431.7MWH, 2203.8MWH and 216.8MWH in 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively. Similarly, for wind speed at 50m, the total load losses were 169.68MW, 1689.17MW and 80.2MW with corresponding energy losses 604.38MWH, 4715.66MWH and 325.21MWH respectively. Out of the total energy losses, wind speed at 10m contributed 46.4%, 25.9% and 29.4%, while wind speed at 50m contributed 64.9%, 54.9% and 50.0% in 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively. Also, wind speed at 50m range has highest speed across the 3 years. This implies that wind at 50m is a more significant factor for outages than wind at 10m, regression coefficient R2 = 0.121 against 0.050 and unstandardized beta coefficient β = 0.348 against –0.223 at 95% CI, suggesting issues with taller structures or vegetation contact. The findings of this study are relevant for power grid operators, policymakers, and infrastructure planners in Nigeria, highlight the importance of improving power infrastructure, regular scheduled maintenance most especially at the beginning of the year when wind speed is high in North Central States of Nigeria.
Keywords: Grid interruption, load loss, wind speed, power outage, energy loss, north central Nigeria