Open Access Original Research Article

Oil Price Shocks and Fiscal Spending in Oil Producing Economy: The Role of Asymmetry

Bernard Olagboyega Muse

Journal of Energy Research and Reviews, Page 1-10
DOI: 10.9734/jenrr/2018/v1i429709

Given their over reliance on proceeds from the sale of crude oil, fiscal spending in the oil-producing economy are often characterised with some specific challenges mainly due to the uncertainty in the nature of oil price movements in the international crude oil market. Motivated by the historical up – down trends in the international oil prices and their potential implications particularly for oil-producing countries, this paper explores linear and non-linear ARDL frameworks to examine the symmetric and asymmetric impact of oil price shocks on fiscal spending. Using the case of the Nigerian economy, this empirical finding suggests that shocks to international oil prices did matter for fiscal spending in the oil-producing economy. On the direction of the impact of the shocks, the finding of the non-rejection of the null hypothesis of no asymmetry thus implies that fiscal spending in Nigeria reacts indifferently to either a positive or negative oil price shocks.

Open Access Original Research Article

Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis of Energy Inputs for Rice Production in Nigeria

Babajide S. Kosemani, A. Isaac Bamgboye

Journal of Energy Research and Reviews, Page 1-7
DOI: 10.9734/jenrr/2018/v1i429715

The influence of energy inputs and form of energy on the output level for rice production in Nigeria was investigated. The sensitivity of energy inputs was estimated using the marginal physical productivity (MPP) method and partial regression coefficients on rice yield. Energy related data for two (2) growing seasons were collected in nine (9) rice farms. The farms consist of three (3) small, medium and large farms, respectively. Data were obtained through field surveys, direct measurements, interviews with farmers and structured questionnaires. Standard equations were used to evaluate the energy requirement for each defined unit operations. Econometric model evaluation showed that nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer and biological (seed) energy were the most important energy input that influences energy output. The elasticity of nitrogen, phosphorus fertiliser and biological energy on the output were 0.86, 0.44 and 0.13, respectively. While, mechanical, thermal and manual energy were 0.08, 0.050 and 0.026, respectively. The coefficient of indirect energy and direct energy were 0.90 and 0.05, respectively. Sensitivity analysis results indicate that additional use of 1 MJ of phosphorus fertiliser, manual, biological (seeds) and machinery energy would increase rice yield of 6.36, 1.08, 1.05 and 0.82kg, respectively. Energy inputs and patterns of energy consumption in rice production was modelled. The models adequately predicted the energy inputs and output for rice production.

Open Access Original Research Article

The Use of Fuzzy Logic Model to Investigate the Effect of Weather Parameter Impact on Electrical Load Based on Short Term Forecasting: Further Study

Danladi Ali, G. P. Vasira

Journal of Energy Research and Reviews, Page 1-10
DOI: 10.9734/jenrr/2018/v1i429717

Electrical load forecasting is very important for effective planning and management of power system. Accurate load forecasting helps the electrical power company to make some decisions on how to meet up with their consumers’ demand.  This paper presents a solution methodology using fuzzy logic approach for short term load forecasting (SLTF) for Adamawa State University. The proposed method used fuzzy reasoning decision rules that utilized the nonlinear relationship between inputs and output. The model developed was able to forecast the future load with mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.36% and forecasting without previous load at the input of the fuzzy logic model yields better prediction error. However, from the result obtained, it shows temperature has a significant impact on electrical load than the relative humidity. Also, electrical load shall increase by 1.84 kW on the 25th September, 2018 due to increase in temperature.

Open Access Original Research Article

The Japanese Electric Power Policy Studied through the Business Structure of the Power Industry: A Long-term Analysis before and after "Deregulation"

Hidekazu Aoki, Nobuo Kawamiya

Journal of Energy Research and Reviews, Page 1-13
DOI: 10.9734/jenrr/2018/v1i429719

The Federation of Electric Power Companies (FEPC) of Japan has long been releasing the detailed financial statements of their member corporations (on their website). We have analyzed the transition of Japan's electric power policy through the business structure of the electric power industry using the FEPC financial data over 53 years. Thus, we have clarified the problems and distortions built into the power industry by Japan's power policy as stated in the following: (1) During the regulation period, the dual-price mechanism for the industrial use and the home-use sectors had been effectuated, where (2) the former shared two thirds of the power demand but yielded only small profits or even losses; and the latter, sharing only one third of the demand, yielded nearly all of the industry's profits; however, (3) since the start of complete retail deregulation, this dual-price mechanism has come to suffer paralysis and the power majors began a cutthroat competition, which now seems to result in diminution of profitability in the home-use sector (the industry's former treasure box). This price-cutting war is considered very dangerous for the sustainability of this industry because this business is highly equipment-intensive and is severely vulnerable to any revenue instability. Meanwhile, declining demand due to the declining population is inevitable, and the power infrastructure will become excessively capacitive against demand. At the policy level of the government, recognition to this is overwhelmingly short. There is a possibility that the most powerful risk of both the electric power industries and social economy will be the way of the electric power policy that leads electricity demand from the expected growth rate and prepares the power supply configuration based on it.

Open Access Review Article

Evolution of Energy Strategies in Turkey: Forecasts by Time Series

Soner Top, Hüseyin Vapur

Journal of Energy Research and Reviews, Page 1-16
DOI: 10.9734/jenrr/2018/v1i429711

As a developing country with over 70% external dependence on energy, there is an increasing demand for electricity in Turkey. In this study, energy resources strategies in Turkey have been investigated and the historical development of its energy usage was summarised. Turkey's energy demand has increased as a result of industrial development and the various energy sources have been selected in different periods to meet this need. In all periods, fossil fuels have taken the lead in energy production. Although investments in renewable and nuclear energy sources have increased, fossil energy sources will not be replaced in the near future. The future fossil fuel production, the electricity production and the greenhouse emissions have been calculated and interpreted by time series (ARIMA), statistically. The forecasts mainly show that natural gas based electricity generation will decrease to 9.3% and renewable energy based electricity generation will increase to 25.6% in the next decade. It is obvious that the fossil fuels based greenhouse emissions will be 375.61 million tons CO2 equivalent in 2026 and the largest share of this emission will be derived from the natural gas by 66.3 billion m3.